Write a 1750-2000 word essay, answering this question:
In this essay, we ask you to think about the future of the Internet. Similarly to your discussion post(s), think about the different futures of the governance and structure of the Internet. What are the risks of the “Balkanization” of the internet? What are the opportunities? Do you find it likely? Finally, what would you implement to secure the future of the internet?
this is a Cybersecurity and politics/ international relations paper
MUST USE THE Reference links provided below and incorporate into the essay
What is Internet Governance?” UNESCO, 2019. https://www.internetgovernance.org/what-is-internet-governance/John Watts et
John Watts et al, Alternate Cybersecurity Futures, Atlantic Council, 2019. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/alternate-cybersecurity-futures/
Doshi, Emily de La Bruyère, Nathan Picarsic, and John Ferguson, “China as a ‘cyber great power’: Beijing’s two voices in telecommunications,” Brookings, 2021 https://www.brookings.edu/research/china-as-a-cyber-great-power-beijings-two-voices-in-telecommunications/
Robert Morgus, Justin Sherman, “The Idealized Internet vs. Internet Realities (Version 1.0): Analytical Framework for Assessing the Freedom, Openness, Interoperability, Security, and Resiliency of the Global Internet,” New America, 2018. https://www.newamerica.org/cybersecurity-initiative/reports/idealized-internet-vs-internet-realities/
United Nations, Secretary General’s Roadmap for Digital Cooperation, 2020. https://www.un.org/en/content/digital-cooperation-roadmap/
samole discussion answers
This was a remarkably challenging assignment as there are so many intricate complexities to consider. Narrowing it down to only one of the Atlantic Council scenarios was nearly impossible. I think the article from internetgovernance.orgsummed it up pretty well when they said, “Internet governance involves a complex mixture of all…governance structures.” Scenario one seems most on par with where we are at currently, scenario two carries a few risks, but in my opinion carries a lot of potential for good, and scenario three seems most likely where we we are headed and also the most dangerous.
My reasoning behind three being most likely and the most dangerous is because it exposes very real vulnerabilities in our system. We’re so caught up in scenario one style of conflict in great power struggle and trying to develop advanced and complex new systems that we overlook the incredibly simple and potential fatal chink in our armor, the very free-market, free-speech liberties we cling to. China and other authoritarian powers are currently living in scenario three, controlling nearly every facet of their citizens lives. They skirmish with us in scenario one, but if they haven’t figured it out already, they will soon. All it would take would be a handful of super-viral posts that tear our fabric apart at the seams and suddenly governments have to throttle their populations in order to maintain the peace and a semblance of freedom. But at that point, the battle has all but been lost. It is my opinion that scenario two, specifically World 2, the development and deployment of AI algorithms to maintain an open internet seems the best way to cover our vulnerabilities and prevent the collapse of our way of life. Innovation in this area could also help us prevail in the great power struggle. One of my favorite quotes from Professor Allenby is, “he who innovates first controls the reality in which his adversaries live.” AI could change the game to one where we are not competing horizontally but puts us into a more vertical position of advantage.
The future of cyber governance is extremely complex. The scenario I agreed with and found most likely is Scenario 2 – Al and Insecurity for All: The Future of Cyber Conflict. “The increasingly rapid integration of machine learning and automated decision-making into cybersecurity operations and information warfare is tightening decision-making windows and reducing opportunities for deliberated human intervention” (Atlantic Council). Some may not necessarily agree with this scenario. However, I believe it can be a good thing to increase machine learning.
A future governance I find dangerous is Global Connectivity. I believe Global connectivity is an amazing thing. More people should have access to affordable Internet. However, with more access to Internet the more likely cyberattacks/treats will occur. Cyberattacks happens because people have access to the internet.
The Five “Ideals” talks about having a free internet. “Any user can access and exchange information on and through the internet without unreasonable restriction” (Morgus, Sherman). I am very two sided in regards to this idea. I believe everyone should have access to the internet and benefit from it. However, there should be some restriction to protect from attacks/treats. Without some restriction, who knows what people are capable of. It opens up many doors for people. I don’t believe we should have restrictions that prevent us from benefiting from the internet but some restrictions are necessary for cybersecurity.
I think that Scenario 2: AI Insecurity for All is the most dangerous of the three scenarios. This scenario would likely lead to the opposite of the “defense advantaged” cyber space, which Jason Healy advocated for in the lecture. While somewhat beneficial for defenders, AI will present a significant problem for defenders since actions would be “innumerable [and] persistent” (Whyte 12). Additionally, it will also put democracies at a disadvantage against authoritarians.
Human Rights Watch has created a spectrum to determine human interaction with weapons systems (Boulanin and Verbruggen). On one end, there are “Human-in-the-loop” weapons systems wherein humans determine when to deliver force. In the middle, there are “Human-on-the-loop” weapons systems wherein the machine determines when to use force under human oversight. On the other end of the spectrum are “Human-out-of-the-loop” weapons systems wherein the machine determines when to use force without human oversight. Human-out-of-the-loop weapons systems are fastest of the three, but they present an ethical consequence that most democratic nations would feel uneasy about accepting–the removal of the human from the decision to use lethal force. For authoritarians on the other hand, “human-out-of-the loop weapons systems not only have the potential to improve speed, but also remove any chance of insubordination; the machine will complete its mission without thought.
This scenario is likely–just not right around the corner. The most significant issue with AI is implementation. Finding ways to apply deep neural networks is and will continue to be a time consuming task for the foreseeable future.
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